Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 25.324669 26.907154 28.596051 30.542917 32.738407 35.153552 38.033601
2025-11-16 22.502778 24.586325 26.927618 29.787413 33.235226 37.325547 42.654801
2025-11-23 21.374292 23.795864 26.614871 30.203662 34.752496 40.481662 48.527701
2025-11-30 20.300782 22.914979 26.039555 30.146048 35.563136 42.734627 53.495781
2025-12-07 19.324611 22.046607 25.367626 29.844666 35.947573 44.377748 57.801208
2025-12-14 18.113885 20.799491 24.117648 28.662230 34.987915 43.972145 58.867622
2025-12-21 17.576600 20.356380 23.849129 28.736608 35.738735 46.083784 64.289141
2025-12-28 17.189906 20.074675 23.759371 29.026623 36.797535 48.763544 71.251756
2026-01-04 16.512365 19.379111 23.077014 28.432130 36.477497 49.196330 74.164272
2026-01-11 16.294511 19.270564 23.168809 28.930827 37.844179 52.561145 83.714799
2026-01-18 16.003766 19.047783 23.086627 29.161348 38.800014 55.347080 92.974745
2026-01-25 15.424944 18.413879 22.403743 28.454786 38.174405 55.184993 95.321060
2026-02-01 14.717759 17.645907 21.589178 27.642664 37.544587 55.385500 99.984669
2026-02-08 14.085164 16.963257 20.874727 26.956434 37.098921 55.961457 106.333503
2026-02-15 13.828962 16.778281 20.847882 27.312732 38.458624 60.387055 126.830370
2026-02-22 13.478917 16.443820 20.581746 27.263337 39.084783 63.425289 145.921230
2026-03-01 13.101949 16.053601 20.210447 27.011253 39.301061 65.597993 164.384395
2026-03-08 12.552689 15.399305 19.418397 26.018222 38.017025 63.979703 164.631848
2026-03-15 12.317866 15.183627 19.270401 26.080843 38.766641 67.504914 195.430309
2026-03-22 12.144849 15.048340 19.234406 26.324800 39.898619 72.347532 245.902537
2026-03-29 11.799410 14.651330 18.781479 25.824377 39.462946 72.832639 267.786331
2026-04-05 11.695242 14.600965 18.857698 26.244253 40.987841 79.416834 375.697227
2026-04-12 11.543926 14.475050 18.809094 26.438022 42.055609 85.078276 535.394206